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Arvest Bank is doing some scenario analysis. It believes the prime interest rate for business loans will change from their current 4 percent to either 5 percent or 3 percent in the next year. There will be no change in their 3,000,000 income at the 4 percent interest level, but net income will fall to1,000,000 if interest rates fall to 3 percent and increase to 4,000,000 if the interest rates increase to 5 percent. Finally, Arvest predicts a 25 percent probability of a 4 percent interest rate, 2

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